Come On, Come On, You Think You Drive Me Crazy

Is the following scenario, outlined by Slate's Chris Wilson on the "Trailhead" blog, likely to take place? No, in fact, I would place better odds on Larry the Cable Guy winning an Oscar, but that doesn't mean that it's not fun to toss around for a short while.

Obama, on the other hand, is fully capable of it. And if he’s really serious about representing a new kind of politics, now is the time for him to prove it in the only meaningful way left. Moreover, were he to play it right, dropping out now nearly guarantees that he’ll be elected president in 2012.
Here’s the roadmap:

Obama drops out next week, stating that although he could almost certainly win the nomination by fighting it out until the convention in August, he is simply not willing to drag the party through a battle that will cripple its chances against John McCain. He then pledges to help support Sen. Clinton in her bid—with full knowledge that she will not take him up on the offer.

In one stroke, Obama will regain his messiah creds by making the ultimate sacrifice for the good of the party. His followers will be furious. The mere mention of Clinton’s name will provoke unspeakable acts. They will abandon Clinton in numbers sufficient to hand McCain the election in November.

Losing the presidency again after eight years of Bush will ruin the Democratic Party. It will become obvious that Clinton’s decision to stay in the race was the turning point in the election. The base will turn its wrath on party leaders like Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi, who failed to push Clinton out. Obama, as the de facto head of the party, will broker negotiations to install new leaders loyal to him.

McCain will be eminently more beatable in 2012. Demographics will continue to shift in Obama’s favor as his 14- to 17-year-old supporters come of voting age. Anyone foolish enough to challenge Obama for the nomination—and don’t rule out Clinton—will go nowhere. Obama’s utopian vision for a Democratic party unified around him will be complete.

I'm not sure if I subscribe to the school of thought that says the current Democratic contest has been so contentious that it will cause those who support the losing candidate to "sit out" the general election against John McCain and coughRalphNadercough, but I can tell you this: If the course holds to its current bearings, the 2008 Democratic National Convention will be the first certifiably unpredictable political convention in my lifetime.

Regardless of whether you plan to support McCain, Obama, Clinton, or Nader in the fall, the American political landscape promises to be anything but boring.

So Many People, So Many People Pass

In what is quickly becoming a daily event at Running Down a Dream, I offer my congratulations to Mr. Jeremy Masten for correctly naming "Run" by Snow Patrol as the Wednesday Song of the Day. That's four days in a row, folks. It seems that Jeremy's current run is inversely related to the success of the Rangers (on a current 6 game losing streak). Everyone, for the good of the Rangers, I'm begging you to dethrone Mr. Masten.

It's not often that a national newspaper files a feature story with the dateline "Kokomo, Indiana", but with the never-ending slog that is the current Democratic nomination process, that has changed. My Dad grew up in Tipton, Indiana, which is about 20 miles southeast of Kokomo, and other than possessing the only "sitdown" McDonald's in America, there is nothing remarkable about the city.

With that said, it these "typical" American cities and towns that hold a tremendous amount of responsibility for determining the identity of the Democratic nominee this fall.

As the Democratic presidential hopefuls turned to Indiana as a new battleground in the fight for the nomination, they find themselves facing a different audience in places like Kokomo, a blue-collar city in the middle of endless expanses of farms north of Indianapolis. In some ways, these are voters not so unlike those in other Rust Belt states, like Pennsylvania, but with an added dose of nostalgia and a practical, Midwestern sensibility.

“We are manufacturing workers, farmers, beer drinkers, gun owners, pickup drivers,” said Karen Lasley, 64, who was volunteering on Wednesday morning in Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s field office in Kokomo (one of 28 Mrs. Clinton has opened around the state along with Senator Barack Obama’s 22, including one just down the street). “We are full of pride for this country.”

Politically, though, Indiana is by no means monolithic: its terrain is more of a quilt, as elaborate as its tangled time-zone map, complicating matters for the campaigns as they decide where to devote time and money.

"For Indiana Voters, Talk of Change May Fall Flat" by Monica Davey in the New York Times.

Everybody's Got Their Dues in Life to Pay

Congratulations to Mr. Jeremy Masten for correctly naming "El Scorcho" by Weezer as the Saturday Song of the Day.

So it came to pass last Saturday night, in what is surely the most preposterous photo-op in campaign history, Hillary Rodham Clinton of Wellesley and Yale was pounding down Crown Royal whisky from a shot glass at Bronko's bar in Indiana. A friend emailed that if she really wanted to win Pennsylvania, she would have drunk some of the draft beer in her left hand, dropped the shot glass into the mug and slammed that back. But hey, her heart was in the right place.

"Hillary and Obama in Small Town" by Daniel Henninger of The Wall Street Journal.

Like You Reached Right Into My Head and Turned on the Light Inside

Somehow, simply by posting this article, I'm fulfilling Brian Stelter's prophecy.

No idea what I'm talking about? Keep reading.

According to interviews and recent surveys, younger voters tend to be not just consumers of news and current events but conduits as well — sending out e-mailed links and videos to friends and their social networks. And in turn, they rely on friends and online connections for news to come to them. In essence, they are replacing the professional filter — reading The Washington Post, clicking on CNN.com — with a social one.

“There are lots of times where I’ll read an interesting story online and send the U.R.L. to 10 friends,” said Lauren Wolfe, 25, the president of College Democrats of America. “I’d rather read an e-mail from a friend with an attached story than search through a newspaper to find the story.”

In one sense, this social filter is simply a technological version of the oldest tool in politics: word of mouth. Jane Buckingham, the founder of the Intelligence Group, a market research company, said the “social media generation” was comfortable being in constant communication with others, so recommendations from friends or text messages from a campaign — information that is shared, but not sought — were perceived as natural.

Ms. Buckingham recalled conducting a focus group where one of her subjects, a college student, said, “If the news is that important, it will find me.”

Also, something that is sure to drive my Dad crazy...the Facebook/My Space friend stats for the various candidates (also found in the Stelter piece):

• Barack Obama-1,000,000 (combined)
• Hillary Rodham Clinton- 330,000 (combined)
• John McCain- 140,000 (combined)

Somehow, I think John McCain doesn't give a second thought to websites like Facebook and My Space, and frankly, I think that's a good thing. He's the kind of guy who always seemed more closely suited to the 19th century rather than the 21st. We will see in November if the American electorate thinks that is an asset or a liability.

Whatever's In My Head Won't Go Away

For three more months (maybe more!) the campaign will proceed along in its Verdun-like pattern. There will be a steady rifle fire of character assassination from the underlings, interrupted by the occasional firestorm of artillery when the contest touches upon race, gender or patriotism. The policy debates between the two have been long exhausted, so the only way to get the public really engaged is by poking some raw national wound.

For the sake of that 5 percent, this will be the sourest spring. About a fifth of Clinton and Obama supporters now say they wouldn’t vote for the other candidate in the general election. Meanwhile, on the other side, voters get an unobstructed view of the Republican nominee. John McCain’s approval ratings have soared 11 points. He is now viewed positively by 67 percent of Americans. A month ago, McCain was losing to Obama among independents by double digits in a general election matchup. Now McCain has a lead among this group.

For three more months, Clinton is likely to hurt Obama even more against McCain, without hurting him against herself. And all this is happening so she can preserve that 5 percent chance.

When you step back and think about it, she is amazing. She possesses the audacity of hopelessness.

"The Long Defeat" by David Brooks in tomorrow's New York Times.

With a Love So Hard and Filled With Defeat

Clinton had sounded like a traditional executive, as someone who gathers the experts, forges a policy, fights the opposition, bears the burdens of power, negotiates the deal and, in crisis, makes the decision at 3 o’clock in the morning.

But Obama sounded like a cross between a social activist and a flannel-shirted software C.E.O. — as a nonhierarchical, collaborative leader who can inspire autonomous individuals to cooperate for the sake of common concerns.

Clinton had sounded like Old Politics, but Obama created a vision of New Politics. And the past several months have revolved around the choice he framed there that night. Some people are enthralled by the New Politics, and we see their vapors every day. Others think it is a mirage and a delusion. There’s only one politics, and, tragically, it’s the old kind, filled with conflict and bad choices.

Hillary Clinton has fought on with amazing resilience since then, and Tuesday night may well bring another surprise, but she’s always been the moon to his sun. That night in November, he defined the campaign.

"A Defining Moment" by David Brooks in today's NY Times.

What's going to happen in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont, faithful readers of Running Down a Dream?

Any predictions, prognotistications, or views into the political crystal ball?

Here's my predictions:

For the GOP, I see McCain winning Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont, but narrowly losing out to Huckabee in the Lone Star State. That would not exactly be the vote of confidence that McCain needs heading into the fall against an re-invigorated Democratic party, but it seems to be a result that would reflect the fractured state of the Republican party at the moment.
For the Dems, I see Obama winning by a fairly comfortable margin in Texas, winning by a close margin in Vermont, but losing squeakers in Ohio and Rhode Island. That means Senator Clinton will almost certainly stick around through the summer, even as her margin for error continues to diminish.

Wait a second, while we're in the predicting mood, here's my thoughts on today's second-leg Round of 16 matchups in the Champions League:

• Arsenal-AC Milan: Despite the fact that midfield maestro Clarence Seedorf will likely miss the match for Milan, the return of Kaka, Andrea Pirlo, and Alessandro Nesta bodes very well for the defending champions. Milan will advance with a 2-1 victory at their home ground, the San Siro.
• Barcelona-Celtic: After winning 3-2 at Celtic Park a fortnight ago, Barcelona are the heavy favorites to advance in this tie. Even though Celtic will fight hard to withstand the Barcelona effort at the Nou Camp, the Scottish side simply do not have the ability to hold back weapons like Henry, Messi, Ronaldinho, Eto'o, et. al. Barcelona advances with a rather comfortable 3-1 win.
• Manchester United-Lyon: Karim Benzema's 54th minute goal for Lyon in the first leg of this tie made things interesting, but Carlos Tevez's 87th minute equalizer put the Red Devils in prime position to advance to the Round of 8. Tonight at Old Trafford, I expect Man. U. to continue to push down on the accelerator and bring home a 2-0 victory. I don't like it one bit, but the Red Devils are going to be awfully difficult to stop this year.
• Fenerbahce-Sevilla: After capturing a 3-2 home win in Turkey, Fenerbahce heads into their match with Sevilla with a slight advantage, but the Spanish side always play well at the Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. Despite a noble effort from Fenerbahce, I expect Sevilla to capture a 2-1 win at home to advance to the Round of 8.
  

I'm a Wild Light Blinding Bright

Congratulations to Ben for correctly naming "A Murder of One" by Counting Crows as the Saturday Song of the Day.

After a weekend where victories by Mike Huckabee in Louisana and Kansas continued to muddle the Republican nomination process, Barack Obama won by large margins in Washington, Nebraska, Maine, and Louisana to move ahead of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race before key Tuesday contests in Maryland, D.C., and Virginia.

There was much made last month of Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Sen. Obama and today's piece on "Fox News Sunday" is probably the closest that President Bush will come to endorsing John McCain before he (most likely) wins the Republic nomination. I'm sure that each of you have your own opinions on the pros and cons of endorsements from Sen. Kennedy and President Bush, but there's one possible forthcoming endorsement that has the potential to signal a step across partisan lines by a prominent former member of the George W. Bush Administration.

Even though it requires a bit of reading between the lines during this interview between former Secretary of State and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell and CNN's Wolf Blitzer, it looks like Powell, a self-described Republican, could endorse Sen. Obama. Although Powell does not say those precise words, much less offer any type of time table for such a statement, it seems as though his description of wanting to support a candidate that has the party "behind them" would point towards the Democratic coalition that Obama is building and away from the ever-fracturing GOP.

I've always had a tremendous amount of respect for Colin Powell, and I highly recommend the autobiography that he co-authored with Joseph Persico entitled My American Journey. Again, the value of endorsements by any figure is always in the eye of the beholder, but it seems as though a potential Powell endorsement of Obama would carry more weight than most political head-nods.

I Wonder, Is There Anything I'm Going to Miss?

Despite the fact that the following piece was drawn from The Sun (the leading English tabloid as well as the paper with the highest circulation of any English-language newspaper in the world), I must give credit to Mr. Andrew Tuegel for passing along: "Obama Forever Blowing Bubbles". If that headline seems a bit odd, let me explain.

Due to family connections in Britain, Obama apparently became a West Ham United supporter five years ago and continues to follow the Hammers as closely as possible given his current, ahem, obligations.

“He never really followed it, though, until he was told all about the passion of West Ham fans by some of his English relatives. He’s always keen to find out how his adopted club are getting on.”

Now, Obama's support of West Ham United is certainly not as enticing as if he, John McCain, or any other candidate were to reveal that they supported, oh say, Liverpool. That would be an automatic vote-clincher in my book. Nonetheless, a possible President who follows the Hammers is much more palatable than what you are about to read.

Rival Hillary, 60, has been linked with Man Utd after hubby Bill, the ex-President, revealed the Reds were his favourite team.

Yes, that's right, ladies and gentlemen, the Clintons support the English-version of the Evil Empire. Perhaps you disagree with the Clintons on policy matters or maybe it is more a visceral opposition to the return of "Billary", but I can tell you this: We do not need Man. U. supporters in the Oval Office.

Go forth and do what you must, faithful readers.

In This Time of Introspection, On the Eve of My Election

I was only 10 months old when Ronald Reagan took Walter Mondale behind the proverbial woodshed, and I still relish the 52-17 drubbing that America's Team issued to the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl XXVII, but Obama's 55-27 (give or take a point either way) destruction of Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina Democratic primary would seem to be a harbinger of things to come on Super Tuesday.

It will be very interesting to see how the national media outlets spin Obama's victory due to the voter backlash that seemingly occurred in New Hampshire after the flood of messianic-headlines appeared following his triumph in the Hawkeye State.

I fully realize that the previous sentence seems to imply that the national media have an interest in promoting and fostering "Obamamania", but after all of the stories written since his famed speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention describing his meteoric rise, doesn't that seem to be the case?

Let me add that I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing as a potential Obama (or McCain for that matter) presidency would be a welcome movement away from the partisan bitterness and strife that has characterized American politics over the last 15 years.

I honestly have no idea what is going to happen between now and November, but tonight's events are hopefully an indication that the American electorate might just finally be ready to move on from the "scorched earth" politics that we have become accustomed to during the Clinton/Morris/Bush/Rove period.

Everybody Wants to Be a Friend

Congratulations to Mr. Dan Carlson for correctly naming "Firecracker" by Ryan Adams as the Tuesday Song of the Day. Once again, Running Down a Dream's resident alt-country expert does not disappoint a thankful audience.

“Obama is to me very analogous to Robert Kennedy,” Reich said. “The closer you got to him, the more you realized that his magic lay in his effect on others rather than in any specific policies. But he became a very important vehicle. He got young people very excited. He was transformative in the sense of just who he was. And a few things he said about social justice licensed people. Obama does all that, almost effortlessly.”


"The Choice: The Clinton-Obama battle reveals two very different ideas of the Presidency" by George Packer of The New Yorker.

I Always Pretended For Your Sake, So You Wouldn't Know How You Made My Heart Break

Congratulations to Mr. Lance Agan for correctly identifying Ben Harper as the artist behind the Monday Song of the Day, which was "Walk Away" from Disc 2 of 2001's Live from Mars.

If there is anything that I've learned in almost 24 years on earth, it is this: Americans love arguing about many things, but two trump them all: politics and the BCS. As luck, or scheduling, would have it, both are in high supply today.
Last night, the Bayou Bengals of LSU brought home their 2nd BCS title in the last 5 years and their 3rd overall football national championship. I was obviously pleased to see Tyler-natives Matt Flynn and Ciron Black play very well in leading the Tigers to victory over the Buckeyes, and trust me, seeing Ohio State lose will never cease to entertain me, but last night just did not have that "buzz" that other national championship matchups have generated. Sure, there was a "buzz" in the Big Easy, but that was likely due to the collective BAC of the Tiger and Buckeye faithful rather than any great anticipation over the matchup.

Today, with LSU's triumph as a backdrop, University of Georgia President Michael Adams, also chairman of the NCAA executive committee, has come forth with a proposal for an 8-team playoff that he will forward to NCAA President Myles Brand for submission to the NCAA Division I Board of Director at its convention, which will take place on Monday in Nashville.

It would be easy to dismiss the actions of Adams as a knee-jerk reaction the nationwide sentiment that his university's team was playing as well as anyone at the end of the season (Exhibit A: An absolutely devastating 41-10 dismantling by the Dawgs of a previously undefeated, although extremely overmatched, Hawaii squad in the Sugar Bowl), but Adams was quick to proffer that the current BCS system was "undercutting the sportsmanship and integrity of the game."

I hate to be a cynic on just about everything besides Major League baseball teams based in the Bronx, but I will believe that the Division I, excuse me, Football Bowl Subdivision Championship will be settled on the field when I see it with the two eyes that the Good Lord has given me. Also, due to the existing contracts with Fox (the broadcaster of the BCS Bowl Bash brought to you by the new film Jumper!!! Oh, Fox, how I hate you, but that's a post for another day) the BCS will exist in its current form through the 2010 season, with the earliest possible changes coming in 2011.

In other news of the day, John McCain and Hillary Clinton have been projected as the eventual winners in the New Hampshire primaries for the Republican and Democratic parties respectively.

I guess the Democratic nomination process is not simply going to the Obama coronation that everyone thought that it might be after his strong showing in Iowa. It will be very interesting to see how the Illinois senator deals with this close defeat in a state where many expected him to win by a large margin.


On the Republican side of the street, if you had told me 5 or 6 weeks ago that John McCain would win the New Hampshire primary, I would have responded in the following manner:

"We're talking about New Hampshire in New England, right?"

"The American state next to Vermont?"

"Wait, now what are you saying exactly?"

"Okay, that's what I thought you said. John McCain in New Hampshire....nah, it'll never happen."

It seemed thoroughly improbable that the Arizona senator would be able to resurrect his moribund campaign, but against the vast organizational apparatus of Mitt Romney and the charging charisma of Mike Huckabee, the venerable Vietnam veteran has found a way to victory in the Granite State.

I'm not sure how much momentum this is going to give him going into Michigan (Romney's home state, but he (Mitt) is toast at this point), South Carolina (where McCain did very well in 2000), and Florida (a state that Rudy Giuliani almost has to win in order to maintain his presence as a viable candidate for the Republican nomination), but if tonight has taught us anything, it's that McCain may be down, but he's almost never out.