With a Love So Hard and Filled With Defeat

Clinton had sounded like a traditional executive, as someone who gathers the experts, forges a policy, fights the opposition, bears the burdens of power, negotiates the deal and, in crisis, makes the decision at 3 o’clock in the morning.

But Obama sounded like a cross between a social activist and a flannel-shirted software C.E.O. — as a nonhierarchical, collaborative leader who can inspire autonomous individuals to cooperate for the sake of common concerns.

Clinton had sounded like Old Politics, but Obama created a vision of New Politics. And the past several months have revolved around the choice he framed there that night. Some people are enthralled by the New Politics, and we see their vapors every day. Others think it is a mirage and a delusion. There’s only one politics, and, tragically, it’s the old kind, filled with conflict and bad choices.

Hillary Clinton has fought on with amazing resilience since then, and Tuesday night may well bring another surprise, but she’s always been the moon to his sun. That night in November, he defined the campaign.

"A Defining Moment" by David Brooks in today's NY Times.

What's going to happen in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont, faithful readers of Running Down a Dream?

Any predictions, prognotistications, or views into the political crystal ball?

Here's my predictions:

For the GOP, I see McCain winning Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont, but narrowly losing out to Huckabee in the Lone Star State. That would not exactly be the vote of confidence that McCain needs heading into the fall against an re-invigorated Democratic party, but it seems to be a result that would reflect the fractured state of the Republican party at the moment.
For the Dems, I see Obama winning by a fairly comfortable margin in Texas, winning by a close margin in Vermont, but losing squeakers in Ohio and Rhode Island. That means Senator Clinton will almost certainly stick around through the summer, even as her margin for error continues to diminish.

Wait a second, while we're in the predicting mood, here's my thoughts on today's second-leg Round of 16 matchups in the Champions League:

• Arsenal-AC Milan: Despite the fact that midfield maestro Clarence Seedorf will likely miss the match for Milan, the return of Kaka, Andrea Pirlo, and Alessandro Nesta bodes very well for the defending champions. Milan will advance with a 2-1 victory at their home ground, the San Siro.
• Barcelona-Celtic: After winning 3-2 at Celtic Park a fortnight ago, Barcelona are the heavy favorites to advance in this tie. Even though Celtic will fight hard to withstand the Barcelona effort at the Nou Camp, the Scottish side simply do not have the ability to hold back weapons like Henry, Messi, Ronaldinho, Eto'o, et. al. Barcelona advances with a rather comfortable 3-1 win.
• Manchester United-Lyon: Karim Benzema's 54th minute goal for Lyon in the first leg of this tie made things interesting, but Carlos Tevez's 87th minute equalizer put the Red Devils in prime position to advance to the Round of 8. Tonight at Old Trafford, I expect Man. U. to continue to push down on the accelerator and bring home a 2-0 victory. I don't like it one bit, but the Red Devils are going to be awfully difficult to stop this year.
• Fenerbahce-Sevilla: After capturing a 3-2 home win in Turkey, Fenerbahce heads into their match with Sevilla with a slight advantage, but the Spanish side always play well at the Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. Despite a noble effort from Fenerbahce, I expect Sevilla to capture a 2-1 win at home to advance to the Round of 8.
  

I'm a Wild Light Blinding Bright

Congratulations to Ben for correctly naming "A Murder of One" by Counting Crows as the Saturday Song of the Day.

After a weekend where victories by Mike Huckabee in Louisana and Kansas continued to muddle the Republican nomination process, Barack Obama won by large margins in Washington, Nebraska, Maine, and Louisana to move ahead of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race before key Tuesday contests in Maryland, D.C., and Virginia.

There was much made last month of Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Sen. Obama and today's piece on "Fox News Sunday" is probably the closest that President Bush will come to endorsing John McCain before he (most likely) wins the Republic nomination. I'm sure that each of you have your own opinions on the pros and cons of endorsements from Sen. Kennedy and President Bush, but there's one possible forthcoming endorsement that has the potential to signal a step across partisan lines by a prominent former member of the George W. Bush Administration.

Even though it requires a bit of reading between the lines during this interview between former Secretary of State and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell and CNN's Wolf Blitzer, it looks like Powell, a self-described Republican, could endorse Sen. Obama. Although Powell does not say those precise words, much less offer any type of time table for such a statement, it seems as though his description of wanting to support a candidate that has the party "behind them" would point towards the Democratic coalition that Obama is building and away from the ever-fracturing GOP.

I've always had a tremendous amount of respect for Colin Powell, and I highly recommend the autobiography that he co-authored with Joseph Persico entitled My American Journey. Again, the value of endorsements by any figure is always in the eye of the beholder, but it seems as though a potential Powell endorsement of Obama would carry more weight than most political head-nods.

I Always Pretended For Your Sake, So You Wouldn't Know How You Made My Heart Break

Congratulations to Mr. Lance Agan for correctly identifying Ben Harper as the artist behind the Monday Song of the Day, which was "Walk Away" from Disc 2 of 2001's Live from Mars.

If there is anything that I've learned in almost 24 years on earth, it is this: Americans love arguing about many things, but two trump them all: politics and the BCS. As luck, or scheduling, would have it, both are in high supply today.
Last night, the Bayou Bengals of LSU brought home their 2nd BCS title in the last 5 years and their 3rd overall football national championship. I was obviously pleased to see Tyler-natives Matt Flynn and Ciron Black play very well in leading the Tigers to victory over the Buckeyes, and trust me, seeing Ohio State lose will never cease to entertain me, but last night just did not have that "buzz" that other national championship matchups have generated. Sure, there was a "buzz" in the Big Easy, but that was likely due to the collective BAC of the Tiger and Buckeye faithful rather than any great anticipation over the matchup.

Today, with LSU's triumph as a backdrop, University of Georgia President Michael Adams, also chairman of the NCAA executive committee, has come forth with a proposal for an 8-team playoff that he will forward to NCAA President Myles Brand for submission to the NCAA Division I Board of Director at its convention, which will take place on Monday in Nashville.

It would be easy to dismiss the actions of Adams as a knee-jerk reaction the nationwide sentiment that his university's team was playing as well as anyone at the end of the season (Exhibit A: An absolutely devastating 41-10 dismantling by the Dawgs of a previously undefeated, although extremely overmatched, Hawaii squad in the Sugar Bowl), but Adams was quick to proffer that the current BCS system was "undercutting the sportsmanship and integrity of the game."

I hate to be a cynic on just about everything besides Major League baseball teams based in the Bronx, but I will believe that the Division I, excuse me, Football Bowl Subdivision Championship will be settled on the field when I see it with the two eyes that the Good Lord has given me. Also, due to the existing contracts with Fox (the broadcaster of the BCS Bowl Bash brought to you by the new film Jumper!!! Oh, Fox, how I hate you, but that's a post for another day) the BCS will exist in its current form through the 2010 season, with the earliest possible changes coming in 2011.

In other news of the day, John McCain and Hillary Clinton have been projected as the eventual winners in the New Hampshire primaries for the Republican and Democratic parties respectively.

I guess the Democratic nomination process is not simply going to the Obama coronation that everyone thought that it might be after his strong showing in Iowa. It will be very interesting to see how the Illinois senator deals with this close defeat in a state where many expected him to win by a large margin.


On the Republican side of the street, if you had told me 5 or 6 weeks ago that John McCain would win the New Hampshire primary, I would have responded in the following manner:

"We're talking about New Hampshire in New England, right?"

"The American state next to Vermont?"

"Wait, now what are you saying exactly?"

"Okay, that's what I thought you said. John McCain in New Hampshire....nah, it'll never happen."

It seemed thoroughly improbable that the Arizona senator would be able to resurrect his moribund campaign, but against the vast organizational apparatus of Mitt Romney and the charging charisma of Mike Huckabee, the venerable Vietnam veteran has found a way to victory in the Granite State.

I'm not sure how much momentum this is going to give him going into Michigan (Romney's home state, but he (Mitt) is toast at this point), South Carolina (where McCain did very well in 2000), and Florida (a state that Rudy Giuliani almost has to win in order to maintain his presence as a viable candidate for the Republican nomination), but if tonight has taught us anything, it's that McCain may be down, but he's almost never out.

Come Writers and Critics Who Prophesize With Your Pen

"I’ve been through election nights that brought a political earthquake to the country. I’ve never been through an election night that brought two.
Barack Obama has won the Iowa caucuses. You’d have to have a heart of stone not to feel moved by this. An African-American man wins a closely fought campaign in a pivotal state. He beats two strong opponents, including the mighty Clinton machine. He does it in a system that favors rural voters. He does it by getting young voters to come out to the caucuses.

This is a huge moment. It’s one of those times when a movement that seemed ethereal and idealistic became a reality and took on political substance."

"The Two Earthquakes" by David Brooks of the NY Times.
The wins in Iowa last night for Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee are certainly not the end of the road to the White House, but they are, at the very least, an interesting beginning.