You Got a Great Car, Yeah What's Wrong With It Today?
I know it's only January of 2007, but it's never too early to check your Presidential hopeful lineup:
(The following people have either already officially announced that they are running or they have filed the necessary papers to open an exploratory committee)
Batting for the Democrats:
- Senator Joseph Biden from Delaware
- Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton from New York
- Senator Barack Obama from Illinois
- Senator Christopher Dodd from Connecticut
- Congressman Dennis Kucinich from Ohio
- Congressman Randy Crow of North Carolina
- Governor Bill Richardson from New Mexico
- Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa
- Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina
- Former Senator Mike Gravel of Virginia
The current G.O.P. lineup looks like this:
- Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas
- Senator John McCain of Arizona
- Congressman Duncan Hunter of California
- Congressman Ron Paul of Texas
- Congressman Saint Michael Jesus Archangel of Michigan
- Congressman Hugh Court III of Alabama
- Congressman John Cox of Illinois
- Congressman Tom Tancredo of Colorado
- Former Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia
- Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
- Former Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin
- Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Look at that. That's 22 names! I consider myself a pretty close student of the American political landscape, and if I didn't know better, I would think some of those names were made up. Let's be honest, there's only about 2-3 people on each side who would have a realistic shot at winning in a general election.
In my mind, those people are:
For the Democrats, I think it is going to be either Edwards, Obama, or Clinton. I know that's not shedding any revolutionary thoughts on the topic, but in my mind the only other Democratic hopeful that has a shot at cracking that echelon is Joe Biden, thanks to the time he has spent on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
For the Republicans, it looks like it's going to be either Romney, McCain, or Rudy. If you are looking for a potential darkhorse, I think it could be Duncan Hunter or Mike Huckabee (who has not actually filed yet).
These are just some thoughts at an early part of the race for 2008, but I thought it would be fun to put some predictions out there just to see what happens 22 months. Let me know what you think.
Labels: Politics
posted by Justin @ 1/20/2007 08:11:00 PM
8 comments
8 Comments:
I applaud you on such a complete list. I really like Huckabee's chances. I think he comes off really well. Why do you think all these random congressmand decide to run?
Andy,
For a second, I actually thought about putting the Green and Libertarian candidates on there, but I have too much to do this evening. That would have extended the list by about 6-7 more names.
I think the random congressmen decided to run because 2008 is an incredibly wide open year. It just feels like change is in the air, and there is no slam-dunk candidate on either side of the aisle. I guess that makes people want to throw their hats in the ring.
Go Libertarians!
Seriously though, need we look further than Saint Michael Jesus Archangel? That screams of greatness.
I've got to agree Kyle on this one.
I think the list is pretty exhaustive.
On the Democrats side, I'll throw Edwards off your short list. I think Obama steals a lot of his young voters away. According to all polls, Hillary has the early lead. And, if she were to get the Democratic nod, I believe she's already won or lost the election today. Most people already have their opinion of Hillary and if they would vote for her or not, and not much between now and November 2008 will change that for them. Obama, on the other hand, people know little about -- he's a bit of a blank slate. So we won't really know how he'll fare until more of his views start coming out. When those views start coming out, I think people will realize he's more liberal than they thought. And while his words and charisma may appeal to both sides of the aisle, I'll be interested to see whether his actual ideas appeal to the same crowd. Hillary also brings to the table the same thing Bush did in 2004 -- a lot of voters will cast votes against Hillary instead of casting votes for a candidate.
I can honsetly say don't know how to handicap the shortlist of Republicans, so I won't try right now, plus this has gotten pretty long as it is. Both McCain (whether justifiably or not) and Guiliani will both face heat from the far right for being too moderate. I don't think Clinton/Obama will face the same heat from the far left.
My own political leanings aside, I think Guiliani, as of today, is the most electable candidate given his experience in the political arena and his appeal to the moderate voters.
I'm avoiding LARC studying so I'll weigh in:
I think that Obama has the broadest appeal - young (for a presidential hopeful), minority, middle American. His biggest shortcoming is his short time in Congress. But we'll see. I hope Edwards doesn't get the nomination - he's charming and charasmatic and yadda yadda, but I don't think he'll have any more luck alone than with Kerry.
My only opinion on the Republican side of things is that many people remember Giuliani's mayoral scandal. (He wanted his mistress to live in the mayor's mansion with him.) Definitely not a family values oriented plus. If you've forgotten about that, I'm sure the Dems will do everything to remind you.
I knew 14 of the names, and I felt very proud of myself. Just thought I'd share.
Even though I'm in the minority, which is rare for me in Texas, I'll throw in my opinion and show my support for Brownback, Ron Paul (whom I've met and absolutely adore, and who really doesn't have a shot at the nomination), and Tancredo. I agree that Romney has a good shot at the nomination, but I really think that Rudy has a snowball's chance in hell. I'm surprised not to see Alan Keyes' name on the Republican list - has he finally stopped running? I love him, although he also has a miniscule chance at the nomination. Funny, my favorites are on the opposite ends of the spectrum - Keyes is way too conservative for most republicans, and Paul is way too liberal. However, I think that the people who come up with the common notions of conservative and liberal are wrong, and that the way that I feel should truly be defined as liberal.
I've rambled too long, so I will just add: I despise Vilsack. I really admire McCain as a human being, yet I don't particularly want him as president, but I suppose I do prefer him to just about everybody on the other team (I say "just about" because I've never heard of Dodd, Crow, or Gravel - who knows, they could be the best things since sliced bread! Doubtful, but possible).
I think you're throwing off Bill Richardson of NM to easily. A Hispanic governor of a western state is going to be an attractive candidate, demographically. And predicting a Stop Hillary movement isn't outside the realm of possibility.
Throwing off Edwards or Obama right now is insane. Those guys are players.
The GOP list seems, short of Guiliani and McCain, lacking a real heavy hitter. And I'm not sure either of those two can win the nomination, though they could win the general. I thinkthere's candidate waiting in the weeds. Or one of those guys is gonna be an effective dark horse.
That said, it's TWO YEARS away. Isn't this a little absurd?
Stephen,
I don't have Richardson's name on the list because he did not announce his candidacy until Sunday. I do think that he could potentially be a pretty strong candidate for the Dems.
Also, about the absurdity of the post. It may be almost 2 years away, but look at how much commentary it has already generated.
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